In Victoria, Australia, an open-cut coal mine is on fire, and expected to burn for days. (Plenty of greenhouse gases there – the sort of positive feedback mechanism the scientists are getting worried about.)
It is just one of 230 fires in the state, and its neighbour, NSW, is also expecting a great number as the same weather conditions reach it.
It is October. Early October. That never used to be fire season. But judging by someone to whom I was speaking yesterday, Australians really are getting worried about this apparent effect of global warming – as they are about the wheat crop, likely to be less than 50 per cent of last year’s, an estimate that is falling even lower by the day.
World wheat reserves are at their lowest level since 1981.
“The concern now is what happens next year. If we have poor conditions for growing wheat again, supplies could get very tight and we might see some demand rationing,” said Dan Cekander, grains analyst at Fimat.
James Barnett, grains analyst for Man Global Research, part of the Man Group, said there was more concern in the global corn market after the USDA cut crop estimates in the US by 209 million bushels to 10.9 billion after it said that 800,000 fewer acres were growing corn than had previously been expected. The US is the world’s largest corn grower.
“We are looking at a structural change in the corn market, because demand is going to increase next year from the ethanol industry, and we might not be planting corn in enough acres to satisfy that demand,” said Mr Barnett.
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